Wednesday, April 7, 2010
APPLE'S iPAD DEBUTS STRONGLY, BUT KEY TESTS REMAIN
SAN FRANCISCO - Apple Inc sold more than 300,000 iPads on the tablet computer's first day in stores, a strong showing that roughly matched Wall Street forecasts and mirrored the iPhone's debut in 2007.
Despite a solid opening weekend, which prompted several investment banks to raise their earnings and revenue forecasts, the bigger test will come later this year, as consumers outside the company's core fan base size up the iPad.
Questions remain about whether consumers will shell out $500 or more for a device that fits between a smartphone and a laptop, and which Apple hopes pioneers a new class of device.
It hopes the sleek iPad, which hit Apple stores on Saturday, joins the iPod and the iPhone in its stable of successful consumer products, providing the next driver of growth as sales of its multimedia player and smartphone begin to moderate.
Should it take off, the iPad would not only provide a new market for component makers, but another platform for which software developers and content companies would hawk their wares.
Time will tell whether Apple has another bona fide hit on its hands, but media companies like New York Times Co and News Corp are betting the iPad will erect a profitable bridge from print to digital content.
"The launch went pretty much as expected; it was well received," said Shannon Cross of Cross Research. "There is widespread enthusiasm for the product, but it's a new category, and it will take time for people to understand it."
Apple has staked its formidable reputation on a 9.7-inch touchscreen tablet with no clear-cut case for use other than pure media consumption. Rivals including Hewlett-Packard Co and Dell Inc are preparing tablets of their own later this year, so consumers will have a range of choices, particularly in the crucial holiday period.
"From a bigger strategic picture, the iPad is a content gatherer for Apple; that's what separates it from the others," said Broadpoint Amtech analyst Brian Marshall. "This has been a successful strategy for Apple in the past with iTunes," the company's online music store.
MARKET HOOPLA
Many analysts believe the company likely sold 350,000 to 400,000 iPads for the weekend. A number of Apple stores in the United States were closed for the Easter holiday on Sunday.
At least four brokerages lifted their full-year earnings estimates and price targets for Apple following the iPad launch.
JPMorgan raised its price target on Apple stock to $305 from $240; Kaufman Brothers increased it to $295 from $253; and Thomas Weisel Partners lifted its target to $280 from $270. Susquehanna raised its target to $275 from $260, while Barclays kept its target unchanged at $285.
Shares of Apple closed up 1.1 percent at $238.49 on Nasdaq, close to its all-time high of $238.73. The stock ran up last week in anticipation of the debut of the tablet computer on Saturday.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Keith Bachman called the first-day sales figure "reasonable, but not a blowout number."
He said the iPhone, which was launched in 2007, sold at a similar pace to the iPad in the beginning. Sales passed the 1 million mark after 74 days.
Apple's first-day iPad sales included deliveries of pre-ordered iPads to customers -- which may have helped depress opening day crowds at some locations -- as well as shipments to sales partners and sales at Apple retail stores.
Analysts expect the company to sell 1 million or more iPads in the current quarter ending in June. Wall Street expects about 5 million to be sold in 2010, although estimates vary widely.
Only the Wi-Fi version of the iPad went on sale on Saturday, and only in the United States. Apple will expand to nine international markets, and roll out a 3G-compatible iPad, later this month, with wireless service from AT&T.
FESTIVE MOOD
Media companies are not the only ones counting on the success of the iPad. Companies found to have supplied some of the key components to the iPad received a boost in trade on Monday.
These include Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, up 1.5 percent; LG Display Co Ltd, up 2.2 percent; Broadcom Corp, up 4.5 percent; and Texas Instruments Inc, up 3.1 percent.
An analysis by research firm Chipworks also identified chips in the iPad from suppliers such as Cirrus Logic Inc, which jumped 8.3 percent on Monday, Atmel, Linear Technology, Intersil and STMicroelectronics.
Others may be quaking. Susquehanna Financial analyst Jeffrey Fidacaro said the iPad was likely to take share from Amazon.com Inc's Kindle because of its robust e-reader capabilities. Amazon shares were off 0.2 percent.
There did not appear to be any supply issues on the iPad's opening weekend, as some had feared, with only a few reports of stores selling out, as was the case during the iPhone's launch.
Long lines and boisterous crowds emerged at Apple stores in big cities such as New York and San Francisco, but some stores in suburban areas were not as crowded.
Oppenheimer & Co analyst Yair Reiner said in a research note that the launch day performance was "a measure of brand loyalty among Apple devotees, who would buy virtually anything bearing that magical fruity logo. For others, it will take time to recognize a compelling use case for the device."
Apple said iPad users downloaded more than 1 million applications from the company's App Store and more than 250,000 ebooks from its iBookstore during the first day.
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